A "Dicey" Flu Prediction

The presentation made by Dr. Gibson relates to how poorly prepared we are for such an eventuality. Despite our huge knowledge of viruses and vaccines, our disproportionately large national expenditures for medical care (15 percent of GDP vs. 11 percent for the runner-up), our current national priority on bioterrorism preparedness, and our exquisite ability to identify the genetic makeup of microorganisms, the basic organizational structure of American health care is not set up to address such a misadventure.

I remember very similar angst that precipitated the ill fated national swine flu immunization campaign of 1976. We performed poorly; the epidemic never came!

Despite the article's title, its main message is not that a pandemic is imminent. It is that we are not well prepared. SSVMS physicians should take this opportunity to learn about the possibility of pandemic flu and about what to do if it hits.

dlyman@dhs.ca.gov